A New Bullish Outlook for Gold
Bank of America has raised its long-term gold forecast, saying the precious metal could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026. The bank issued the projection after gold climbed above $4,000 in 2025, nearly doubling from early 2024. Analysts say the market looks overbought on the surface, yet many portfolios still remain underinvested in gold, which could support further gains.
Why Analysts Expect Higher Prices
In its latest Global Metals report, Bank of America highlights several forces driving its bullish call. The firm believes the recent surge is strong, but not extreme compared with past rallies. It expects gold to average around $3,800 per ounce in late 2025 and gradually work toward $5,000 in 2026.
Key drivers include:
- Persistent fiscal deficits that increase concerns about long-term financial stability
- Rising public debt levels that encourage investors to seek safe havens
- Strong interest from central banks, especially in emerging markets
- Steady physical demand and tight mine supply
- Growing hedging behavior against currency debasement and rate volatility
Furthermore, Bank of America notes that many institutional investors still hold smaller gold allocations than in earlier cycles. This underexposure could fuel additional demand as portfolios rebalance.
Although the bank’s outlook remains positive, strategists warn that gold’s climb will not be smooth. They expect periodic pullbacks of about $100 to $200 per ounce as traders lock in profits or respond to shifting macro headlines. However, Bank of America views these dips as potential buying opportunities rather than signs of a reversal.
The bank also forecasts strength in the silver market, projecting prices could approach $65 per ounce within the same period.
