With just 65 days remaining until the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin closed out August with an 8.6% decline, settling at an intraday low of $57,230 per coin on September 1, 2024. This downturn has sparked speculation about how the upcoming election might influence Bitcoin’s market value, especially given its historical behavior in previous election cycles.
Historical Patterns: Post-Election Bitcoin Surges
Historically, Bitcoin has shown significant price appreciation after U.S. elections. In the 2016 and 2020 election cycles, Bitcoin’s value increased substantially after a winner was declared, with the peak of each bull cycle occurring roughly a year later. For instance, during the 2016 U.S. election, Bitcoin was trading at $703 per coin but surged close to $20,000 by the end of 2017. Similarly, Bitcoin was valued at $15,579 on November 5, 2020, and nearly hit $69,000 by November 2021.
Looking back even further, during the 2012 election, Bitcoin was priced at just $10.80 per unit, but by December 2013, its value had climbed to approximately $1,250 per coin. These historical trends suggest that Bitcoin’s performance post-election could be noteworthy.
Current Market Context and Speculation
Unlike previous election cycles, where Bitcoin rallied from lower prices during the election period, Bitcoin had already reached an all-time high of over $73,700 per unit in March 2024. As of now, Bitcoin’s value stands 21% below its lifetime high, making the current market environment unique compared to past bull market/election cycles.
Market analysts, such as Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, have speculated that Bitcoin could reach six figures before the election and potentially climb to $150,000 if former President Donald Trump wins. However, whether Bitcoin will follow its historical post-election surge remains to be seen. The outcome of the election could play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months ahead.
