A recent study from River, a U.S.-based Bitcoin financial services firm, highlights a major imbalance in Bitcoin’s supply and demand. According to their research, businesses are buying roughly 1,755 BTC each day, while miners produce only about 450 BTC daily. This means corporate demand is nearly four times greater than new issuance.
Who Counts as “Businesses”?
River defines businesses as both corporate treasuries, such as MicroStrategy, and ordinary companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Their estimates rely on public filings, wallet tagging, and blockchain heuristics to identify business-related holdings.
Alongside businesses, funds and spot Bitcoin ETFs add another layer of demand, scooping up an estimated 1,430 BTC per day. This combined activity places significant pressure on Bitcoin’s limited daily supply.
Other Key Flows in Bitcoin Supply
River’s report also points out additional movements in Bitcoin ownership:
- Governments add around 39 BTC per day.
- Roughly 14 BTC per day are considered permanently lost, often from misplaced private keys.
- Retail investors appear as the largest outflow group, with an estimated –3,196 BTC daily. However, River notes this may not always reflect retail selling. In many cases, coins move from addresses tagged as individual-owned to institutional or custodial ones.
Why It Matters
With businesses and institutions acquiring Bitcoin much faster than miners can produce it, available supply for the broader market continues to shrink. While River stresses that its data is based on estimates and may include over-the-counter trades or custodial reshuffling, the overall trend is clear: institutions are playing a bigger role in shaping Bitcoin’s supply dynamics.
Community discussions reflect some skepticism. On Reddit, several users argued that funds and ETFs don’t truly qualify as “businesses” since they act more as intermediaries offering exposure through IOUs. Others noted that while the data provides a useful snapshot, it may exaggerate the idea that small holders are being entirely replaced by institutions.
