Stocks Hit Records, Crypto Takes Notice
The S&P 500 just cleared 6,500 to a new all-time high. Stronger U.S. growth, resilient earnings, and heavy lifting from mega-cap tech pushed the index to back-to-back records. An upside GDP revision and AI-driven capital spending added fuel. When equities shift into risk-on mode, financial conditions often ease—and crypto usually feels that tailwind.
Think of it like a rising tide in your 401(k) that also nudges crypto wallets. It’s not one-to-one, but the mood matters.
BTC Reaction: Constructive, With Nearby Resistance
Bitcoin dipped below $109,000 earlier this week and then bounced with the equity surge. It now trades near $112,000. On-chain metrics highlight supply sitting around $113,600, which could cap upside unless spot demand accelerates.
Key levels and signals to watch:
- Price: $112,000 area, with resistance near $113,600
- Setup: Buy-the-dip behavior has emerged after the equity push
- Confirmation: Sustained closes above resistance would open higher ranges
Macro Wild Card: Cuts Help, Inflation Can Spoil
The macro channel remains the swing factor. A growing group at the Federal Reserve appears open to rate cuts as soon as September. Lower policy rates would reduce real yields and, historically, support long-duration risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, a sticky PCE inflation print could disrupt that path and reprice expectations.
In short, an equity rally plus rising cut odds creates a tailwind. Inflation surprises remain the spoiler.
Correlation has also evolved. Recent research shows Bitcoin’s link to stocks is regime-dependent—tight during macro shocks and looser when crypto-specific flows dominate. That dynamic lets BTC benefit from buoyant stocks without moving tick for tick with the S&P 500.
One more structural support stands out: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract steady inflows. Those vehicles encourage longer-horizon investors to buy dips, especially when risk appetite is strong across assets. If the stock rally holds and real yields drift lower, ETF demand could reignite quickly.
