Bitcoin prices could soar to $125,000 if the Republican Party secures control of the U.S. Congress following the November 5 elections, according to a forecast by Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick. He also suggests that a victory for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election would be particularly bullish for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Potential with a Trump Presidency
Kendrick is optimistic about Bitcoin’s future, especially if Donald Trump wins a second term. He predicts that Bitcoin will reach approximately $73,000 by November 5, the day of the election, and sees it rising another 14% shortly after if Trump wins. Specifically, Kendrick believes Bitcoin could increase 4% when the results are announced and climb another 10% in the following days.
In a note to clients, Kendrick explained:
“Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around $73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win. This is slightly below the $73,800 all-time high recorded in March.”
Kendrick’s analysis highlights the strong correlation between a potential Trump victory and Bitcoin’s market momentum, as many investors associate his policies with favorable conditions for cryptocurrencies.
What If Kamala Harris Wins?
While Kendrick is bullish on Bitcoin under a Trump presidency, he expects a more moderate increase if current Vice President Kamala Harris wins. In this scenario, Bitcoin would dip temporarily but still finish the year at around $75,000.
The analyst also referenced various betting markets, including RealClearPolitics, which estimates Trump’s odds of winning at 59%, and Polymarket, which places Trump’s chances even higher at 75%.
