A widely expected interest rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve could drive Bitcoin’s price down by as much as 20%, according to market analysts. Contrary to the hopes of many investors who expect a price boost, analysts at Bitfinex suggest that the anticipated rate cut might push Bitcoin to levels not seen since February.
In a note published on September 2, Bitfinex analysts warned, “If we were to speculate, we would caution to expect a 15-20 percent decline when rates are cut this month, with a bottom of $40-50k for BTC.” They also noted that September has historically been a volatile month for Bitcoin, and the added uncertainty from the Federal Reserve’s decision could increase market instability.
Market Conditions Add Complexity
The upcoming Fed decision, scheduled for September 18, follows dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who hinted at potential rate cuts in August by stating that “the time has come.” While lower interest rates often make perceived riskier assets like Bitcoin more attractive, Bitfinex analysts caution that this time, the result could be the opposite. The note emphasized that “macroeconomic conditions could easily negate this logic,” adding to the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s near-term performance.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $57,754, reflecting a 2.67% decline over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap data. If the predicted 20% drop occurs, Bitcoin could fall to around $46,000, a price last seen in February.
Expert Predictions and Market Sentiment
Several analysts are keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s next potential moves. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10xResearch, suggested that Bitcoin needs to drop to the low $40,000s before another bull run begins. He stated in August, “To ideally time the next bull market entry, we aim for Bitcoin prices to fall into the low 40,000s.”
Meanwhile, Joe Consorti, an analyst with The Bitcoin Layer, pointed out that Bitcoin’s $60,000 mark is no longer dominated by speculative traders but rather a consolidation zone where long-term investors accumulate and hold. He shared in a September 3 post on X that this price level is a key area for Bitcoin holders.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades also weighed in, noting that Bitcoin is “still fighting around its Bull Market Support Band” and remains uncertain about which direction it will move next.
